Cryptocurrency: review and forecast for April 5-11

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Cryptocurrency over the outgoing week entered a drawn-out sideways range. Such behavior is either a harbinger of a storm, or a further decline in activity with rare shakeouts carrying out first the bulls, then the bears feet first.

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The greed and fear index, according to Coinglass, is at 10 (very, very scary).

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But life goes on, which means cryptocurrency trading goes on as well. Although it is moving extremely sluggishly. Spot trading volumes are at minimal levels, and capitalization quite obviously does not want to grow.

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And now let's move on to reviewing our favorites: BTC / ETH / SOL.

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In the previous review, I showed a certain, to put it mildly, nonzero probability of bitcoin declining toward $50,000 per coin. Nothing has changed in this regard. Moreover, a decline in volatility near the bottom of accumulation may well be evidence of preparation for a breakdown.

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However, a move south will not mean a long-term fixation, but in any case everything suggests that buying back coins now is not the best idea.

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If we think about how they might play out the strike south and where they could then accumulate liquidity, I would consider a scheme implying a hit to fifty, with a return to 57000-60000 to buy coins around 66,000, i.e. back to current values.

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In general, I expect a full trading-through of the 2024 buying range (57-71 thousand per coin).

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The daily chart does not look lively either. In the 68200-69000 range they worked not very aggressively and fell to the bottom of the week. How bad both the monthly (March) candle and the weekly candle look from the point of view of candlestick analysis.

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If the southern strike is pushed back in time, then there is some probability that in the coming week they will again try to move toward 68-69 thousand. And it would not even be shameful, on low volumes, to crawl up to 70-71.5 thousand over several days.

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In general, at the current stage there is nothing more to say about the instrument.

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The Solana cryptocurrency last week stood in a very tight sideways range at the very bottom of the value zone in the range of 80-85 dollars per coin.

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The model shows both the probability of a breakdown south from current values and the possibility of trading back even to 90.

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It is worth noting the decent growth in hourly turnover as the quote declined on April 1. By the way, large volumes went through on VIX at that time. Maybe smart money, seeing this, dumped the riskiest asset in the portfolio? Who knows.

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On April 2, quotes were picked up in the 78.70-80.00 range. The net short imbalance is in the 81.50-82.20 range. The zone that was lower (80-81) has already effectively been traded through on low turnover and even lower volatility.

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It is also worth noting that most of the vertical volumes went through at the lows. Therefore, some pullback is still possible if they hold the quote near 79 dollars per coin. But consolidation below 78.50 dollars per coin would be a very bad signal for buyers.

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The ETH cryptocurrency played out surprisingly beautifully over the past week.

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On April 1, sellers defended their volumes in the 2130-2158 range, right in the lower zone of the sales accumulation range from the week before last.

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The main liquidity for the week was placed in the range of 2048-2066 dollars per one ether. And this range surprisingly coincides with the core (the most traded zone) of the current medium-term accumulation.

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From the current zone, arrows can be drawn in both directions, but for now they are limited by 2150-2160 above and 1930-1950 below. And since that is the case, I will not draw them on the daily chart, because it is an absolutely thankless task.

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I will note only the fact that a little more money has accumulated below, which means they may keep holding the arrays for now and try to push the quote closer to 2150.

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But on the hourly chart there is again an amusing situation. Once upon a time, as far back as February 7, in the 2040-2070 range, someone for some reason threw incredible money into the market: maybe Buterin himself even unloaded part of his holdings in panic. And now the price is here again on the weekend.

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Above I showed that this is the core of two months. But this is a remark about how medium-term stories begin to form around certain volume spikes over a couple of minutes. As if a large player showed a zone of interest, and the price returns here to further unload or build a position in the 2040-2070 range.

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Let us note that the model on ether looks as if a downward strike is being prepared. This is what we will proceed from in our reflections.

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Cryptocurrencies look beaten down. And as if players are preparing to head south. And if so, playing buys is extremely risky.

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