Cryptocurrencies: Review and Forecast for January 03-09

Major cryptocurrencies started the new year 2026 on a positive note. But the question of how justified this note is requires a separate analysis, which we will now conduct.

What pushed cryptocurrencies north? Did fresh money really appear and flow into the crypto markets?

On January 1, social media posts were published saying that the Fed's emergency liquidity volume under the REPO program jumped to 74.6 billion dollars on the last day of 2025.

On January 2, the information went viral and appeared in user news feeds on Binance, Kucoin, Mexc.

I remember that the Fed was going to add liquidity to the system. I also understand that there can be some spikes at year-end, but clearly not of this size. But what alarmed me most was that this information is nowhere except crypto feeds.

Not only Bloomberg, but the Fed itself should have written about a one-time injection. And there is no-thing there.

The original source of the info virus was found quickly: the WhaleInsider account on X, with 629 thousand followers, published this mind-blowing figure of 74.6 billion dollars after noon on January 1.

Crypto folks carried this "truth" further. The occasion acquired details: such a volume is the first since covid, such a volume indicates problems, but crypto folks will do well, since the money will go into the market.

That last point is where we will stop.

The crypto market is most dependent on excess liquidity in the financial system. Right now there are not problems with free liquidity, but there are difficulties: at the last meeting, the Fed promised to add a little fuel, but in a very limited amount.

Against this backdrop, all more or less adequate observers and analysts pointed out that crypto growth is impossible without fresh money. And then on January 1 came such news under the Christmas tree. Many crypto folks rushed to buy coins to make it in time while it was "cheap," because the "info is 100%."

Either WhaleInsider joked while hungover or for some other reason, or worked off cash that big wallets brought him for such a planted story, or there is some other option based on the financial interest of the original source of the planted story or those behind him. Moreover, the appearance of this planted story in exchange news feeds and many crypto news resources happened quite synchronously, which also makes one think about how much the information corresponds to reality.

By the way, here is a picture showing daily REPO volumes. I do not see 74.6 billion dollars in REPO, but I see almost 106 billion. But this is so insignificant against the backdrop of even mid-2025 that my idea that crypto folks were driven into the market with big numbers was only confirmed.

Against the backdrop of pushing crypto folks into market buying, bitcoin showed some growth. From the week's lows, it added +4.3%. Of course, indices could only dream of such weekly growth, but for crypto this is nothing. Real volumes on January 2 are comparable to volumes on December 25 and 29, and they are also not very high.

In the previous review, I wrote the following:

And what do we see? Under the Christmas tree, thanks in part to WhaleInsider's info dump, it reached 91000 per coin and ran into the VWAP of the last short impulse, which began on November 10, 2025.

How can such a balance be traded? If they do not fall sharply under 88000, which is quite possible, then there are chances to see an attempt to storm 95000, although even 93000 may prove insurmountable.

Let us assess the micro-markup on the hourly chart from January 1, i.e. from the moment the current buy impulse started. The quote was pushed into the 89950-90350 range. In the 88900-89300 range, purchases were accumulated and stops were also taken out here, touching the impulse VWAP: all fair.

They stopped at the +2 deviation from VWAP. The stop is in the 90350-90700 range. And after that we see a move below the +1 deviation. This is a serious signal either of the full completion of the current impulse wave, or of a transition into a long balance that can be traded out, and further north, but we need to watch.

Thus, we see that there are no serious players ready to support consolidation. And that means I see no point in jumping on this train right now.

This coin broke out of accumulation in the 122–129 range, but... This breakout is not something extraordinary. In fact, the quote returned to the balance zone.

The overall horizontal volumes accumulated since mid-November show the continuation of play within balance, despite the invitation for crypto traders to buy the coin before it is too late.

In fact, they touched the VWAP of the last short impulse and the balance POC. So far there is no further aggression. That means we watch. Attempts at northern expansion are possible.

On the lower TF it is clearly visible that Solana is overbought. They fully traded through the shadow that was formed on December 31, and... It very much looks like they have no desire to consolidate for continued northern dynamics.

Trading through the shadow is a signal either of a return to balance or the start of a serious move in the opposite direction. We will see.

Ether looks the best of all. Probably, more crypto traders were driven here. True, it is worth noting that the instrument itself is more volatile, which means its “spikes” are stronger.

In any case, the three-week accumulation is in the 2915–2990 range. They managed to touch 3150 from below, i.e. the lower boundary of the extreme shorts. To continue the northern dynamics, it is necessary to hold the VWAP of the short impulse from above (a signal of repositioning into buys).

But a move below last week's POC (2975), and even more so an approach to 2915, will be a very strong signal of reversal selling.