Cryptocurrencies: review and forecast for February 23-28

Crypto people are still afraid, and their fear is largely justified, especially if they are sitting in leveraged positions.

And who is trading spot now? Far from everyone. Either futures, or CFDs, and the trendiest traders use ETFs. The entry is small, but the exit from cryptocurrency is for the whole deposit.

It is not only crypto people who are afraid, but also those who advise where and what to bet on: financial influencers. On February 17, the Central Bank of Russia published a very curious public consultation paper, "On approaches to regulating the activities of financial influencers".

The Central Bank proposes creating a register of financial influencers, who must have certain qualifications and be responsible for the quality of information. In addition, the paper classifies cryptocurrencies as high-risk instruments along with CFD/FOREX.

By the way, on the same day RBC published a piece on whether Roskomnadzor can block Bybit or OKX. According to Sergei Shvetsov, chairman of the supervisory board of the Moscow Exchange, Russians now pay about $15 billion in fees to global crypto exchanges, and the Moscow Exchange will start "fighting for this pie", since it is a good increase in profitability.

It was not for nothing that in Ancient Rome they urged people to look for who benefits from it (Cui prodest). We have already understood who benefits at least from launching rumors.

And now let us get to the point and look at how volumes were placed on BTC / SOL / ETH and how this placement may affect the events of the coming week (not a financial recommendation).

On the main cryptocurrency, the week passed very calmly. Only on Friday, February 20, did trading volume rise sharply: more than 2 times above the two-week average and without any particular shift.

And that means there is a high average volume per tick, and the probability of an impulse is increasing from day to day. I will repeat the thought: the probability of an impulse is elevated, but not guaranteed.

They accumulated this money in the 66700-68000 range, right in the middle between support in the 63500-65000 range and resistance in the 70500-71700 range.

And now let us move down to the hourly timeframe and see how the players worked. Volume aggression passed in the 66600-67300 range. Well, this array needs to be recorded for the future. By the way, at that time increased bitcoin volumes appeared on all crypto exchanges.

What are the plans?

Frankly speaking, plans are difficult. Volatility has gone, and all that remains is to wait for the distribution of Friday's liquidity. I think there is a probability of a puncture of 72000 with a test of 73-75 thousand.

What is good about Solana is that it is not very volatile and behaves like a good stock that has liquidity but little crowding.

Support in the balance was formed in the 77-79 range, and resistance in the 91-93 range. If you look at it sensibly, that is more than a 10% move. And a 10% move is a serious movement, especially over 2-3 days. Not tens and hundreds of percent, but the times are no longer the same.

I do not know what to expect from Solana; for now I lean toward the idea that buyers may touch 95, but I cannot judge how realistic this is before the end of February.

If you look at the hourly chart from February 1, it becomes clear that selling is exhausted. All the money is below, the boundaries are set. And from the boundaries, experienced traders try to work in the opposite direction.

The core of the month is marked in the 84.4-85.4 area. And this is exactly where we stand on the weekend. There is no point drawing arrows, since there are no triggers. Except that on Saturday the lower boundary of the 87-87.8 range was held, as on Thursday the upper boundary of the 78-80 range. The balance continues.

Even ether has gone quiet, and that makes it sad.

The main trading in the outgoing week took place in the 1945-1995 range, with small breaks above and below. Moreover, if there was no money above, i.e. buyers did not try to buy it out, then there was money below, which means the presence of seller liquidity.

It creates the impression that they may hit 2100, i.e. touch the highs of the February range, but no more than that.

On the hourly chart, the following is interesting to note. A week ago, on February 15, the largest hourly impulse-type liquidation spikes came from the 2040-2070 range, where on February 7 there were the largest trades in the balance (larger than at the climax).

But the force of the strike was only enough to push the quote to the 1870.5-1911.5 support range, where liquidity was collected at the climax with very large orders.

The main cryptocurrencies froze and stood still as if rooted to the spot. The most boring market. There is no point trading. The only thing worse is volatile swings, when all the participants at the banquet are taken out in both directions.

Here, for now, the accumulation process is underway, which sooner or later will end in distribution. But let us wait.