Cryptocurrencies: Review and Forecast for February 01-07

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Important news from last week: Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum co-founder, net worth about 700 million USD) talked about cryptocurrencies in socks with holes. After that, crypto quite confidently updated its lows. I do not know about Vitalik, but leveraged buyers were washed out of the market as if they had never been there.

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By the way, Buterin also places bets: sometimes against Trump receiving the Peace Prize, sometimes on something else. At the same time, the deposit for the game is only 440 thousand USD. Overall, reasonable money management: income is 770 million, expenses are 440 thousand for the game and 5 bucks for a pair of socks in a year.

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While Vitalik was choosing socks in his wardrobe, the UAE launched the first dollar stablecoin approved by the central bank (USDU). Now, if you take your girlfriend to Dubai to take a couple of selfies, you can legally pay in USDU.

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And the main news of the outgoing week: crypto traders seasoned by experience and gray hair started discussing silver more than crypto, after which it collapsed by almost 40%. The conclusion is simple: while smart investors were pouring hot liquidity from cryptocurrencies into metals, hamsters were looking for coins to pump. As soon as the pump in metals came to an end, crypto traders began thinking about how to get in there.

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The moral? Better in socks with holes than with a wallet with holes.

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And now about what happened last week and what can be expected in the coming one.

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I will say right away that the maximum volumes in cryptocurrencies occurred on Saturday, January 31. This is a very strong calendar signal: both the end of the month and Saturday, when there is usually almost no volume. This clearly means something.

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Bitcoin confidently pushed through the price and volume bottom. There may be clarifying questions about the break of the volume bottom, but more on that a little later. For now, self-quotation:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rrtj8hzp", "data": {"text": "The core of the week is the range from 89200 to 90100. This is a significant change compared with the previous week, when the figures were within 95000-97500. And this is a hint that there may be a hit to 82000-85000. If not to the lower boundary, then definitely to the upper one. The main priority for the week: expansion south from the flat.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "w7hgdxrx", "data": {"html": "

Bitcoin has moved into a fairly confident short impulse: there are already three expansions on the daily TF. There is also an exit from a three-month balance.

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The volume bottom that held Bitcoin is in the 82000-85000 range. At the same time, the cleanest buying then took place at 82-83 thousand. And shorts were carefully loaded right there.

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From the point of view of the entire short impulse since October 6, 2025, we see a touch of the -2 deviation from the VWAP of this impulse after starting from the very average.

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This type of impulse is, if not the end of the movement, then a clear argument for a return to balance. Why? Because the balance was very long.

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But to assess the reliability of the previous thesis and check the probability of a return into the three-month balance or the start of a new serious southern dynamic, we need to move on to considering only the current short impulse since January 14.

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The first sales were picked up somewhere very far away, at 95000-97500. Then there was a hit with quick additional loading at 92700-93300 and a certain balance with volume rotations from 87600-88400 to 89200-90100 and back.

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The conclusion is simple: the impulse of January 29. Pushing through in the 84600-85600 array, attempts to pick up in the 82100-83300 range. And again a hit south with quick additional loading at 81100-81500.

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By February 1, bitcoin is dangling in the 77800-79100 area, i.e. at the -2 VWAP deviation.

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If trading the short impulse, then from below one can try 81500-83000 in order to fall even lower. A transition into balance is above 85 thousand.

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On the hourly chart, note the short-term short impulse: the start was on Thursday, January 29, i.e. after some consolidation. The key short array is the 84450-85650 range. The next clean short is 81000-81600. There is very little money in the 80000-80500 area.

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Right now rotations are in the 77850-79150 range. If they hold 80000 and go below 77000, then buying is absolutely out of the question. And buying is even more impossible if the price suddenly collapses from 79000 without even letting participants trade the imbalance in the 79300-80000 area.

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I was waiting for Solana around a hundred at the end of December, but they needed to draw a little tail on the monthly candle before breaking the open downward in the last few days of the month.

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On Saturday, January 31, a very large amount of money was rotated through Solana. And it is not fully clear how to assess this: as a stop or as the middle of an expansion. I lean toward Solana still pulling back after all.

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Let's assess Solana from January 14, when it started south. The short was carefully accumulated at 142-145. I even assumed buyers might be working there.

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Then for several days they loaded at 123-131. But this week the clean short was loaded at the lows in the 115-119 range: that is exactly how they work in an impulse.

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They stopped in the 102-104 range. It looks like there will be trading around 110, but not further for now. But above 120, very serious questions will arise for the sellers. Yet who believes in buying crypto now? The rebound lacks a stormy reaction. So we are waiting for continuation.

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Separately, I want to draw attention to Solana's technicality: here there are very clean balances-imbalances with reasonable volatility and without significant stop runs.

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Ether, as always, is in its usual style. If its creator Vitalik likes holey socks, then the Ether quote likes taking money from those who decided to play the game.

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Let's build the Ether chart right from January 28. The levels that were earlier are located too far away and are not relevant for now.

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They accumulated sells at 3000-3020, then immediately collapsed with liquidity taken at 2810-2820. And again an exit south with liquidity taken in the 2725-2745 area, and another drop: at 2520-2545 there is a clean short, but in the wide 2365-2455 range they clearly slowed down.

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For how long is the question. In general, sellers should watch 2550-2650: maybe they will find a tasty short. But above 2750 there is an obvious transition into balance with the short canceled as the main idea.

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Crypto is falling. The sharp growth in volumes on Saturday, January 31, looks especially suspicious. As if they were collecting all liquidity in order to start a new life from Monday. For example, even lower.

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The Fear and Greed Index froze at 14 points. This is not 10 points, when the pullback began in November; there is room to fall. Although the value is very close to extreme.

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But nowhere can one see the money, placed on the horizontal plane, that can turn crypto back around. Except perhaps only for a correction before the next expansion.

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