Cryptocurrencies: Review and Forecast for December 20-26

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On the major cryptocurrencies, the balances are wide enough to catch a decent range move with predictable risk.

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At the same time, cryptocurrencies, while in broad consolidation, are pleasing grid traders who work without stops, if any still remain. The reason is clear: working from the boundaries is fairly easy, especially when monitoring the liquidation of stops from those who like trading with serious leverage.

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Before analyzing the main support and resistance ranges and a few assumptions about a likely short expansion in the near future, let us discuss several pieces of news from the crypto world that caught my attention over the past week.

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From the very interesting. Bitcoin, Solana, and Ether showed three variants of volume models either for reaching a bottom in the balance or preparing for further expansion south.

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From the critically important. Optimism in the stock market is not reflected in the crypto market at all. This more or less hints that either crypto will start catching up and overtaking, or a pullback will begin in the stock market, while crypto, without thinking long, will rush to update its lows.

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From the important. On Friday, a meeting of the Bank of Russia took place, where its head Elvira Nabiullina pointed to crypto mining, and therefore its further sale on international markets in the gray zone, as one of the factors supporting a strong ruble.

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From the future. Paolo Ardoino, the CEO of Tether USD, expressed the view that the risk of the AI bubble bursting as early as next year will drag Bitcoin down with it. He did not name the reasons, and personally I cannot yet justify this opinion, although I do see a certain intuitive logic in it.

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From the past. December 18 marked 12 years since a tweet by well-known crypto opponent Michael Saylor, who in 2013 reported that Bitcoin's days were numbered and that it would repeat the fate of online gambling.

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The comment here is simple: Bitcoin really is, in some sense, repeating the fate of online gambling, but he was very much too quick with burying the main cryptocurrency.

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The second comment is connected with the previous news about Ardoino's statement. Either he marked the 13th anniversary of Saylor's tweet with his own tweet, or he really does know something.

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From the criminal. The other day, Pornhub, which is blocked in the Russian Federation, was hacked. About 200 million users worldwide, especially from countries with strict laws, grew tense. But the hackers promise not to disclose personal data in exchange for a certain amount of bitcoins, which, according to Ardoino, are about to get cheaper. So the hackers need to manage to get the bitcoins now, so that later they are not painfully hurt by missed profit.

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The main global cryptocurrency continues to work within the balance scheme. That is how I wrote about the results of cryptocurrency trading last week. At the same time, I pointed to a significant imbalance from the highs with an exit at least to the lower boundary of the value area.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "xhnl2ewh", "data": {"text": "It is worth paying attention to Thursday and Friday trading, where there was a struggle with persistent imbalances. As a result, the intrawEEK seller pushed through, and work around 90000 is slightly below the accumulation under and at the Fed in the 92-92.8 thousand area.\n\n\n\nSuch stories often imply an attempt at southern expansion at least into the 86000-88000 range, where some buyers had previously been active. But a move to a double bottom, or even a small puncture with work in that very 82000-85000 range, is also very likely.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "ish706cp", "data": {"html": "

The results of trading in the current working week may hint at the beginning of some short-side dynamics. In fact, the week's balance (core) formed precisely in the 86000-88000 range, as expected. There was no move to a double bottom this week, but there is every chance of seeing it as early as next week.

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Now in more detail.

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On Monday, the move started from 90200 (last week's POC control point) straight to the weekly lows, which of course were updated on Thursday, but these 500 are largely not counted even within the one-and-a-half-month balance.

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Already on Wednesday there was a test of the week's open and last week's POC, even with a small higher high by 300 bucks.

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In general, the trading range was set back on Monday, and after that the market worked inside this range - the worst type of week.

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The week's POC is at 88000, and Friday closed slightly higher. But this is also not critical in terms of balance.

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What are the expectations for bitcoin's behavior in the upcoming last full week of the year?

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Conservative scenario 1. Work in the 88000-90000 range through a test of 88600-87300, possibly with a test of 92000, i.e. with trading through the imbalance of the week before last. This is quite possible, given the stop in the same place where buyers worked from November 23 to 26 after the decline stopped and from where there was a sharp reversal on December 1 and 2.

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In other words, we have returned to the month's bottom, and by the end of the month we can carefully return to its highs.

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Conservative scenario 2. Continued work in the 86000-88000 balance with swings within the entire range of last week, with small higher-high and lower-low moves.

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Short scenario. A breakout of the 83800-84600 range, where liquidity for a reversal was placed on November 21-22, with further work closer to 82000. And there later we need to look either for a reversal back into balance through some final accumulation in 82000-85000, or for another southern expansion after flat loading.

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Buy scenario. With a sharp move above 90500 and volume accumulation on Monday-Tuesday in 90500-92000, one can look for expansion into 93500-95000, followed by a hit at 100k.

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I consider the last scenario the least likely. Unless, of course, a golden rain of several tens of billions of speculative bucks miraculously pours onto the market. But for now it looks like buyers around one hundred may get a slightly different golden shower from smart money.

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I will not analyze the lower TF: there you can draw all the same things, only with excessive support/resistance zones.

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Here the picture is a little more interesting than on bitcoin: they pushed through the volume bottom in the 126-129 range and touched 117, in order to return to that range and form the week's POC here at 127.

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It is worth noting that we returned to the -1 deviation of the impulse VWAP from November 11. As part of a short continuation from here next week, they should fall at least to the lows of the current week or even to 113.

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But as part of balance expansion, we should see a return to VWAP, i.e. to 136. Then we can talk about range expansion while holding key levels.

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Thus, we are watching the positioning of the current week's POC at 127 and, overall, the positioning relative to the previous support in the 126-129 range.

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For now, the model of returning to 125-129 looks more like short accumulation, but such models are often replayed as well.

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Here the third model of playing in balance or a potential short exit has played out. If on bitcoin the imbalance was last week and something was being accumulated this week, then on ether they still have not traded through Monday's imbalance, which strongly resembles the second step in a ladder of shorts.

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In the outgoing week, tactical support in the 3000-3050 range was broken. Volume accumulation ran from 2915 to 2985.

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This is slightly below previous supports, but within the volumes for the push-through that were thrown in on November 25-26. Although these volumes too were pierced very deeply three times during the week. Buyers held the 2800-2830 range: this is the zone of thrust volumes from November 23 and reversal volumes from December 1 and 2.

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In this game, we can either move toward 2680 and lower, or, through another bout of volatility, return to 3000-3150/3200.

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By the way, with its wicks, ether strongly reminds me of the NG gas futures or the NASDAQ (NQ) futures. There too they throw the quote somewhere, and then calmly work in clear ranges. But I do not really like that.

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We are watching the indicated ranges and making trading decisions carefully. Quotes are still in the balances of the higher TF, and this means the probability of a return to the middle of the balance or higher. But there are also setups with short potential.

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