Available Insights: U.S. Stock Market Review (10/27-31)

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"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "8rbon4tw", "data": {"text": "Dwight Eisenhower*:«Plans are nothing; planning is everything».*American statesman and military leader, 34th president of the United States", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "5cturbvx", "data": {"html": "

Good afternoon.

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Today we are starting a new series of market reviews based on cluster analysis (also known as volume analysis) of CME futures. Literally two points:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "hq8cfven", "data": {"items": ["The only insider information available to us is the analysis of volumes placed in the underlying asset, futures, and options markets. We have no other options.", "Placed volumes are the tracks of major players. And following their tracks is reasonable. You just need to learn to read them: this will help you survive in the market and make a profit."], "style": "ordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "0rm2pjv8", "data": {"html": "

The article is a brief review of what happened in U.S. futures on the major indexes and what we should do about it.

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Instead of a spoiler: in the coming week we will have to work within last week's ranges, with a likely widening of the boundaries, but no more than that.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rpxee583", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "kzayfi69", "data": {"text": "News Background Review", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "in97yklo", "data": {"html": "

Throughout the last week of October, stock market players calmly worked at another set of all-time highs.

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For context: analysts at The Kobeissi Letter (a market review service fairly well known among investors) point out that the broad S&P 500 index has already spent 125 sessions above its 50-day moving average (MA). This is the third-longest period in the 21st century.

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Two events are worth noting from the past week: the U.S. Fed meeting and U.S. President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi. By the way, these events were largely synchronized: everyone can think about whether that was accidental or not.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "v4n6nb2l", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/maxresdefault-1100x619.jpg", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "5abeo0h6", "data": {"text": "What Did Powell Say?", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "xrcfb7m1", "data": {"html": "

In simple terms, he announced the imminent start of monetary policy easing. This is not about rates (investor expectations for a rate cut fell by 2 times), but about the start of Treasury buybacks (government bonds) in a month and possible “quantitative easing” (QE), as happened intermittently from 2008 to 2023. According to Powell, there is no bubble in the stock market.

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Despite such positive news, the market reacted calmly. This is understandable: the stock market's growth in October was over 5% overall, so the positive had already been reflected in the price.

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And the market did not react to Trump and Xi at all: as with the Fed, the positive had already been priced into the quotes.

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Thus, there were three key points during the week: the week's open and close, as well as the events mentioned above, which are often market-moving news. The news played out classically: buy the rumor, sell the facts, and all of this happened within the week's range. From Monday (we are not touching earlier periods) and until the expected rate cut, quotes rose; after the rate announcement and the start of the press conference, they fell into the area of the week's open, then traded within the week's range for the remaining days.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "5gwpn2gy", "data": {"text": "Important Events of the Coming Week", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "zigc9nl3", "data": {"html": "

We are watching corporate reports. Although those who are pulling the market have already reported.

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We are waiting to see what happens with the shutdown. If some clarity suddenly appears on this issue, then markets may show decent growth on that day.

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We hope that Trump will not stage another liquidity grab. Or are there those who doubt that Trump's statements are used to build good positions by capital friendly to him?

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "cz0ocbmd", "data": {"text": "ES Futures (S&P 500)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "uneb9yau", "data": {"text": "What happened", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "fq85gaas", "data": {"html": "

The week before last closed in the 6825-6840 range. In fact, it was a classic Friday short squeeze with accumulation at all-time highs of volumes for pushing through (they occur at extremes in a flat structure for an aggressive continuation of movement in the direction of the impulse).

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Trading began from 6866 and only by Friday did they barely trade through the gap. I note that within truly strong dynamics, gaps are not traded through, but we are seeing another set of all-time highs and colossal overbought conditions, so it was quite possible to trade it through slowly.

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Resistance during the week was shown in the 6932-6945 range: liquidity was accumulated before the Fed. In the indicated range is that very footprint of a large player, which was visible BEFORE the news event and which could be used as a reference point for making a trading decision. At the same time, it should be noted separately that not much money was thrown in and accumulated there, i.e. these are not any genuinely braking volumes.

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6870-6905 - the volumes of Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

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With a high degree of probability, the coming week will be a week of balance (work in a range, possibly with a minor shift). The balance (consolidation) may be volatile, i.e. with a wide span. The expected days with a large movement range are Monday or Tuesday. The reason is simple: the beginning of the month, and this is a time of likely sharp movements.

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The base scenario implies accumulation of volumes either in the 6870-6905 range with a move to 6826, or around 6840-6870 with possible manipulations toward the upper boundary of the 6788-6802 range (the previous volume-based all-time high). If a support model is formed in these areas, then it will be possible to consider a trade from supports to the lower boundary of the resistance range 6932-6945. At the same time, one should not wait for a breakout of resistance with consolidation, although a price puncture is possible.

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Within this same base plan, one can look during the week for an entry into a short-term short from/out of the 6932-6945 resistance range. If we see accumulation (balance), then there will be a sell from the upper boundary, but a short one.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "kcmu4hsn", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (NASDAQ 100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "uhjik8l4", "data": {"html": "

The picture is fundamentally no different from the ES futures. Except that the players:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "mjkzp1ak", "data": {"items": ["did not even consider it necessary to trade through the imbalance (gap) between weeks and", "did not complicate the model of consolidation at new levels."], "style": "unordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "hvq9kara", "data": {"text": "What happened", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "nhr9k7vz", "data": {"html": "

On October 24, liquidity for a breakout was thrown into 25500-25555, so that real trading could start above 25800 the following week. Ahead of the Fed, volumes were loaded in the 26225-26280 range. On Thursday and Friday, tails jumped into the 25835-25910 range, where something had been placed very quickly on Monday.

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The 26155-26210 range is Tuesday's last money, Wednesday's support before the news release, and the zone from which they moved lower both on Thursday and on Friday. At the same time, the liquidity placed in 25835-25910 calmly held the quote. During the sessions, they bought up in 25880-25925.

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Liquidity is distributed more simply than on ES, so a slightly more detailed plan can be built.

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I will show it on the RTH (regular trade hours) chart. In fact, RTH is the regular trading session, covering the interval from 08:30 to 15:15 Central Time (CT). Those who remember the basics of exchange trading will immediately understand that this is the operating time of exchanges in the pre-digital era. And now it is simply the working hours of American financial institutions. Not all terminals can show only the RTH session, but mine can.

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At the beginning of next week, it is worth watching the tactical defense of the 26155-26210 range with manipulations up to 26270-26280. Somewhere around 26250-26280, liquidity may be gathered that will push the quote in the opposite direction.

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At the same time, the main scenario is to look for speculative buys after support has formed. Support should be formed around 25800-25900, with the key liquidity accumulation in last Monday's range: 25835-25910.

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I am not ready to discuss manipulations aimed at trading through the gap, since it is not mandatory at the current stage, but is likely after some time.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "adcnyvov", "data": {"text": "What happens if everything goes wrong", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "en0qrke2", "data": {"html": "

A persistent reader will ask: "What if everything goes wrong? Then what is all this for?" The answer is simple.

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The plan is a reference point. It helps to navigate the terrain and see the shift in priorities and scenarios, which still rely on the price ranges being discussed. This is enough to adjust in time.

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As an example, just look at the 26155-26210 range on NQ: it acted as support within the upward impulse that began the week before last, but after the Fed it became a resistance zone, albeit a frankly weak one.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "79fv3nl8", "data": {"text": "In any case, next week one should not expect strong expansions of last week's range. The priority is consolidation at these levels. If everything goes wrong, we will see it and will be able to position the fresh data in the right direction.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "3g43j5gh", "data": {"html": "

Respectfully, Ivan Rusin
Tlap.io

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