Available Insights: U.S. Stock Market Review (24-28/11)

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A short working week has ended on U.S. exchanges.

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A combination of four factors - a complacent holiday mood against the backdrop of an imminent rate cut, growth in the volume of available liquidity in the system, and strengthening expectations of a new version of QE - allowed the U.S. stock market to rebound from its lows. And the current lows were located right at the very bottom of the value area of the current contract.

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If Thanksgiving itself was not marred by anything, then after clearing from Thursday to Friday a failure occurred at the CME, and until the opening of the U.S. "holiday day" session on November 28, i.e. during the Asian and European sessions, trading was effectively not conducted. The reason lies in a disruption of cooling systems at the data centers of CyrusOne, which services the servers of the exchange operator CME Group.

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Otherwise, the week on the U.S. stock market overall passed under a "plus" sign for the U.S. indices: on average they added 3-3.5% each. While Nvidia shares fell by only 2% over the week, Google gained a solid 10.62%. The formal reason for the growth is that the company plans to use its own chips in its own data centers for AI. In any case, this looks more like moving money from one overfilled basket to another.

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Less than two weeks remain until the Fed meeting. The U.S. stock market is confident (almost 87% of investors) in a 0.25% rate cut. Confidence is at levels from a month ago.

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There is an opinion that Trump managed to "rein in" Powell. The former has long demanded rapid monetary policy easing, while the latter has refused in every way to rush on this issue. At times the behind-the-scenes struggle spilled into the media. In the end Powell, who made a series of serious statements in mid-November that investors unambiguously took as signals that the rate would be kept at current levels, rolled them back.

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Last week it became clear that the U.S. Treasury had temporarily stopped vacuuming liquidity from the markets. By the beginning of November, more than $1 trillion had accumulated on the Treasury balance sheet versus $300 billion at the start of the summer. In less than a month, $100 billion returned to the market.

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In this case a simple rule applies: available liquidity grows - financial markets grow.

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Players very briskly pushed the ES futures quote up to an area of fairly pronounced selling in the 6870-6880 range. If buyers appear in Nvidia and Oracle, then nothing will prevent S&P 500 index futures from consolidating above the 6870-6910 zone, where the main shorts passed in October and November.

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If there is a stable desire to buy in the coming week, it is worth watching the quote's behavior around 6780 and all the way down to 6750. Active buyers should hold these values.

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If investors' positive mood evaporates, then it can fall all the way to 6725. In the extremely unlikely event that the quote ends up below the 6630-6680 range, and especially below 6560-6600, where aggressive buying took place, this may be clear evidence of a change in the market phase. But such things usually happen already on a new contract.

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This instrument (NQ futures) is very technical, including from the point of view of the volume quote. But this technical nature looks good on the daily timeframe. Intraday speculation is extremely dangerous due to high volatility and constant stop hunting: in this respect NQ resembles bitcoin and gas.

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Players pulled the NQ futures quote up to the selling zone in the 25520-25670 range. If not for the short week, this would be a very strong hint at an irresistible desire to update the historical high. But the growth came on an "empty" market, which often ends with a return to the starting point.

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The strength of buyers will be visible on consolidation above 25700, and even more so above 26200. In turn, looking for buys at the start of the week is possible around the 25190-25280 range. Tails can also touch 25100, but not below 24900; in that case there will be a shift into the contract balance for a longer period.

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On this instrument, let us look at the weekly cluster chart. There is a very interesting picture here that repeats other instruments, but it looks a little cleaner on this timeframe.

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In mid-October and mid-November, a bottom was aggressively formed in the 46000-46350 range. Vertical volume filters show that 690 and 650 thousand contracts were turned over in those weeks. There had not been such turnover since April, i.e. since the moment of the colossal "tariff" correction.

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A sharp move on YM futures below the 46000-46350 range will be an almost unambiguous signal of a transition to a bear market. This is not the case now, but it needs to be kept in mind over the next 1-2 months.

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If, at the same time, we compare the cluster model of whole contracts, we can see confident holding of the levels of the current contract with a price test of the last buyers of the previous contract in the 45450-45720 range.

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Within the current game, with 2 weeks left until the contract ends, one should not expect a sharp change in dynamics. This means that on YM futures we may see the quote expand northward, i.e. another historical higher high. For this, of course, it needs to hold above 46900-47000 next week. Or we will remain within a wide balance.

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I will repeat again: it is necessary to remember that the growth in the past week was fairly empty, since it took place on a very thin market. This means that it can go deeper too, to the 46700 area, and that is already about 1000 pips from current levels.

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The week closed in the 47650-47800 range. Here, from late October to early December, liquidity passed that was positioned short. The last market volumes passed on Wednesday in the 47685-47600 range: this is the zone where volumes more often passed short.

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In balances, it is very difficult to make any assumptions about how the quote may behave. I would not be surprised if players sharply dump it below 47485-47600. At the same time, if buyers have plans to move into an impulse, there is no need to go below 47050-47300. In a volatile balance, they can drop from 47000 to 46700.

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Players in American stock indices should remember that in the past week only the first three days were really traded. In such cases, the entire movement is often traded back. But, on the other hand, the week before last, at the lows reached by all stock index futures, a lot of money was turned over, and its distribution may last for some more time.

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I wrote about the positive signals above, so the chances of continued upward dynamics are fairly high. All the more so because, closer to the Fed meeting, players often pull quotes up to the places where those quotes were at the previous meeting.

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The balance phase closer to the contract expiration (2 weeks remain before the securities change) often brings many unpleasant surprises to players. Of course, there can also be very pleasant ones. It is also worth remembering that a new month starts on Monday, which means the initial balance of the month must be set in the coming days. Volatility will be elevated and often unexpected, so maximum caution is needed.

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