Available Insights: Crypto Exchanges (24-29/11)

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On crypto exchanges, something like, if not gloom, then certainly a lack of euphoria continues to prevail. There is a clear shortage of liquidity, which the U.S. Treasury had previously dried up. While the stock market is seeing a small inflow of speculative capital, crypto exchanges remain outside the zone of interest of major players for now.

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JPMorgan has stopped servicing the accounts of Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike (specializing in Bitcoin payments) and head of Twenty One Capital (a Bitcoin treasury backed by Tether and SoftBank). Given that JPMorgan had earlier launched a campaign to exclude crypto companies from the MSCI and Nasdaq 100 indexes, this news looks doubly interesting.

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I will add, with some sarcasm, that JPMorgan is one of the world's largest financial conglomerates. So I would not be surprised if, in this case, it is about attempts to take profitable businesses under control. Naturally, within the framework of U.S. law. If BlackRock can do it, then why is JPMorgan any worse?

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Speaking of BlackRock. The stories about the company exiting BTC had barely faded from memory when, at the start of last week, news swept through the market that BlackRock had bought 1669 BTC for $145 million.

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In the previous review, I noted the growth of Bitcoin trading volumes at the lows to maximum levels. Of course, at the time I did not know that BlackRock was also taking part in this celebration of life, but it was immediately clear that serious people were pouring liquidity in there.

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At the same time, let me remind you that BlackRock's purchase or sale of Bitcoin is not always manipulation. Most often, these are operations to support its ETF.

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Last week, there was quite a lot of discussion about the news that North Korean hackers may be employees of 15-20% of the world's leading crypto companies. On the one hand, the logic of North Koreans infiltrating the crypto business can be understood: sanctions evasion, control of resources, and so on.

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On the other hand, journalists wrote that identifying a North Korean is very simple: it is enough to ask about the potential North Korean's attitude toward Kim Jong Un. Allegedly, an undercover agent would not be able to answer in a way that does not expose him: he is obliged to speak well of his leader. This remark completely negates all discussions about the share of North Koreans in crypto companies.

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In New York, a social experiment has begun, the essence of which is handing out $12000 USDC to the poor. Why not USDT? We have no answer.

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But in the corporate world, a campaign has begun against Tether (the issuer of USDT). S&P Global Ratings downgraded its rating of Tether's ability to maintain its dollar peg, citing a dangerous shift toward riskier assets in the reserves of the world's largest stablecoin.

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On Tuesday, the rating agency lowered Tether's rating from 4 to 5, assigning it a "weak" status. Tether is now in the same category as TrueUSD, which lost access to most of its reserves. Meanwhile, Tether's largest competitor, Circle's USDC, has an S&P2 rating, which means "strong."

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"Bitcoin now accounts for about 5.6% of circulating USDT, exceeding the 3.9% overcollateralization margin," S&P writes.

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Apparently, the New York authorities are worried about their beggars and hand out only reliable stablecoins to them; I have no other explanations.

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Players held BTC above $80000 per coin. The main buying took place in the 82000-85000 range. The previously expected rebound to the 91300-92700 range happened in the outgoing week. Now we have another support range besides 82000-85000, namely the 86000-88000 range.

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If speculative capital does not flow into crypto exchanges, then next week one should not expect the northern dynamics to continue. A test of the 86000-88000 range is more likely.

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Of course, there is some probability that in the coming days we will not see bitcoin much below 90000 bucks per coin. Then the next targets will be in the 95000-97500 range. It seems like one hundred thousand is very close, but let us not fantasize. If they give it, then they give it.

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On Solana, the 145 mark still looks very far away. The three-week core is in the 137-144 range. Liquidity is being accumulated very densely here, either for a reversal or for another significant hit downward.

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Local support on SOL is in the 126-129 range. And we may well see the quote there. Solana is far from bitcoin, and here they may already make a knight's move south next week, although that is not certain.

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If the Solana quote breaks through 145, then resistance in the 154-157 range may not hold, and then 170+ will loom on the horizon. But if the 154-157 range holds, after which the quote sharply goes to 135, then this will be a very insistent invitation for players on crypto exchanges to ride south toward 100-110.

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Ether, like bitcoin, reached the resistance zone in the 3015-3045 range during the outgoing week. It went almost to 3100, but that is not so important in terms of analyzing market dynamics. What is important is that liquidity is being accumulated in the same place as before, i.e. in the 3015-3045 range.

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In the current time segment (the short impulse from November 11), the trading model on ether is very similar to the model that I showed earlier on bitcoin.

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Within this model, in the strict buy scenario, which is far from the priority, buyers will not let the price below the upper boundary of the 2915-2955 range. In a more realistic scenario, very soon we may see the 2915-2955 range traded through in exchange terminals. In this case, a test of 2850 will not be anything extraordinary.

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As for the upside targets, the quote may be pushed into the 2960-3230 range and even to 3250. Whoever wants even higher should go to a bank, take a hundred million bucks, and pour all of it into the market on crypto exchanges.

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Crypto exchanges still look fairly sluggish: an acute lack of liquidity is felt. All hope is for a softening of Fed policy and the return to the market of funds that the U.S. Treasury had previously drained.

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A new short has not matured, and there is not enough fuel for buying on crypto exchanges. If new buyers do not appear, we will see a transition into wide ranges.

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