US AI rally ahead of earnings: Nasdaq and Nvidia face an expectations test

The American AI rally does not look tired yet, but its examiner has already entered the classroom with a stack of earnings reports. At the time of writing, Nasdaq 100 stands at 29,698 USD and is rising by +1.26%, while Nvidia is trading at 195.6 USD with a daily change of +0.37%. The main question of the day is not whether demand for AI infrastructure exists, but whether companies can show forecasts strong enough for a market that has already paid in advance for a very upbeat future.

The rise of Nasdaq 100 to 29,698 USD with a daily move of +1.26% shows that investors are not yet exiting the big technology trade. The index is still supported by belief in capital spending on data centers, servers, GPUs, cloud capacity, networks, and energy, without which the AI economy remains a polished presentation without a power outlet. But the meaning of the move is changing: the market is no longer buying AI simply for the word AI itself. The 29,698 USD level and the +1.26% rise point to continued risk appetite, but at the same time make expectations more expensive and stricter. The more future growth is priced in today, the less investors are satisfied with an ordinary report in the style of “everything is fine, we keep working.” Nasdaq is now becoming an indicator not only of technological optimism, but also of tolerance for inflated valuations. If earnings reports show steady demand and confident infrastructure plans, the index may keep support. If guidance turns out to be merely normal, the market will quickly remember that even the most fashionable story must reconcile with cash flows.

Nvidia remains the main symbol of AI infrastructure, but its move looks more restrained than the broader technology impulse. The stock stands at 195.6 USD and is adding +0.37%, while Nasdaq 100 is rising by +1.26%, and this gap conveys the mood well: the flagship is being kept in portfolios, but a new dose of excitement is expected only for new proof. The key risk for Nvidia now is not that demand for accelerators will suddenly disappear. The main risk is that guidance may be strong in absolute numbers, but not strong enough for a market that has already priced in almost perfect execution. After such a run, even a good forecast may look like a bowl of milk instead of a whole refrigerator of expectations. Traders will look not only at revenue and profit, but also at delivery timelines, margins, order visibility, demand from cloud providers, and the durability of the infrastructure cycle. For Nvidia, the difference between “the business is excellent” and “the valuation already demands even more excellence” may now become the main source of volatility.

Earnings season is turning into a reality check after a strong rally in chips and technology giants. Companies tied to AI infrastructure must show not only order growth, but also that this growth is long enough, margin-rich enough, and predictable enough for current multiples. At this stage of the rally, actual results matter, but forecasts become the main text of the day. The market wants to understand whether customers continue to expand data center budgets, whether capacity shortages persist, whether margins are narrowing, and whether there are signs of growth rates normalizing after a sharp acceleration. Hence the nervousness around rumors: what is being discussed is not a collapse in AI demand, but the possibility that forecasts will confirm the market's strength without giving a reason to revise valuations even higher. After an overheated move, disappointment is sometimes not a failure, but the formula “good, but already priced in.” For traders, this is especially important, because such situations often produce sharp reactions even to seemingly decent reports.

AI remains the main driver of the American technology sector, but the phase of unconditional rerating is gradually giving way to a phase of verification. Nasdaq 100 at 29,698 USD with a +1.26% gain shows that buyers are still active, while Nvidia at 195.6 USD and +0.37% confirms that the central stock of the AI theme retains its status as a pillar. The next stage of the move will depend not on general excitement around AI, but on the quality of earnings reports, margins, and the persuasiveness of forecasts. The focus will remain on capital spending by cloud giants, order volumes, delivery timelines, gross margin dynamics, and management comments on demand for 2026. For the market, this is a transition from a big idea to verifiable metrics. The long-term AI story has not disappeared, but investors already know its main arguments and now demand confirmation in numbers. The higher the index and the more expensive the sector leaders, the stricter the reaction will be to any signs that growth is not moving faster than expected, but only within the already priced-in scenario.

The day's bottom line is simple: the AI rally in the US continues, but it no longer lives on enthusiasm alone. Nasdaq 100 stands at 29,698 USD and is adding +1.26%, Nvidia is trading at 195.6 USD with a +0.37% gain, but the next move will be determined by reports, forecasts, margins, and the real durability of demand for AI infrastructure. The market is not rejecting the AI story, but it is beginning to demand accounting discipline and highly convincing forecasts from it..