Nasdaq 100: event 09/09, 12:00 MSK, down move -0.56%, magnitude 4.3, ATR(24) 0.28%.
Now 1 notable moves over 24 h
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Retraced after 4 h, stop survived, target not reached.
In 78% similar cases retraced within the next 12 h up to 29,456, usually after 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR stop was reached more often than the target (69% against 53%) — chasing the move historically lost.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 29,457 (+0.28%) | 1 ATR | 83% |
| Stop | 29,539 (+0.56%) | 2 ATR | 69% |
| Stop | 29,622 (+0.84%) | 3 ATR | 50% |
| Stop | 29,704 (+1.12%) | 4 ATR | 34% |
| Stop | 29,869 (+1.69%) | 6 ATR | 16% |
| Target | 29,209 (−0.56%) | 2 ATR | 53% |
| Target | 29,126 (−0.84%) | 3 ATR | 42% |
| Target | 29,044 (−1.12%) | 4 ATR | 28% |
| Target | 28,879 (−1.69%) | 6 ATR | 15% |
Last 30 days 1 completed events with M ≥ 3
| Time | Instrument | Movement | M | Recommendation | Outcome | Retracement | Stop | Target | Max. favourable / adverse | +24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09, 12:00 MSK | Nasdaq 100 | ▼ -0.56% | 4.3 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 4 h, stop survived, target not reached. | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | 0.8 / 2.3 ATR | +0.15× |
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All records →Player predictions the “Will it retrace?” game · the table lists players with 10+ resolved predictions
Magnitude measures hourly movement rarity: 2·log₁₀(hours since the last movement at least as large). 3 means once a day, 5 once every two weeks, 7 once a year. Stops and targets use ATR(24); outcomes are verified against prior events of the same instrument and direction without lookahead. Live candles come from the unified TLAP PostgreSQL service. This screener does not recommend a trade direction and is not investment advice.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.