U.S. Stock Market Futures: Review and Forecast for 04/06-10/2026

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Futures closed the past short week in the green. The ES futures added +2.99%, YM — +2.65%, and NQ — +3.44%.

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Personally, this was somewhat unexpected for me, but all the levels from which pullbacks or reversals are possible were indicated about a month ago. This only means that the statistical parameters of monthly ranges were not taken into account, if working within statistical trading.

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Along with growing positivity in the stock market, the VIX also began to decline. The previous review stated the following:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "q8uuufvb", "data": {"text": "If you look at the chart not as an oscillator, but as an ordinary chart of an ordinary instrument, it turns out that an impulsive breakout above 30 toward 40 is about to happen. But looking at VIX this way is fundamentally wrong. And if you look at it as an oscillator, you can see a sharp release of tension, which requires de-escalation.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "49aqqoe6", "data": {"html": "

We saw not de-escalation, but a release of tension (the week closed at 23.87). Of course, these are not yet levels of confidence and calm, but one can still talk about some decline in emotional intensity. However, everything may change on Monday.

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The price release of tension happened on March 31 on approximately average volumes (907 thousand contracts). And on April 1, around 24-24.5, 1.46 million contracts were thrown in a narrow range. This is not an extreme value, but very close to it — 6th by volume since January 22.

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By the way, as a remark. Someone worked from February 12 to 18 on elevated volumes at that time (30–40% above average), i.e. 2 weeks before the start of the war in the Persian Gulf. And this “someone” made a lot of money through VIX.

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And now it is time to figure out what happened in the ES / YM / NQ futures.

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The week opened in the 43200–43600 range: this is the core range of the September futures (YM 09-25). A pullback, even if temporary, from this range was expected, but for some reason not by me.

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Why am I saying that the pullback may be temporary? Because the main money of the week was turned over around the 46450-46800 range, and for now this is a resistance zone.

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Trading turnover declined noticeably during the week, but this should probably be attributed to the short week.

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On the daily chart, let us highlight the 46700–47000 range. There was an attempt to buy here. And according to one of the volume models, this may be a signal of a transition into a medium-term balance (accumulation), the exit from which is still quite difficult to predict.

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Under another scheme, sellers can also work this way in volatile directional dynamics, which is what we are generally observing on the daily timeframe.

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Next week, speaking of timing, I would still expect some work within a range. This means movement in different scenarios at least to 46200, but more likely somewhere closer to 45700-45900 with a return to 46700.

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Another scenario implies renewing the bottom in one form or another with a return (test of 45000) up to 46000 or even 46500, but that is not certain.

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Here the short-protection setup is much cleaner, which means the futures' potential to expand south is somewhat higher.

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On the weekly chart, it is clear that since Monday they ran like scalded out of the previously marked range of 6400-6490. The main liquidity of the week passed below the 6650-6710 range, from where shorts were opened the week before last. Incidentally, this made it possible to continue trading almost every dollar on the decline. And that means it is still too early to talk about real exchange panic.

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Thus, the overall plan for next week implies a decline toward 6400. In an extreme case, a decline can be expected to 6150-6250.

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The daily chart confirms the idea that some decline is the priority at the very start of the week. If earlier sales were accumulated in the 6635-6660 range, then during the past week specialists worked most actively in the 6608-6623 range (Wednesday-Thursday).

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On March 31, the highest turnover since March 3 took place. The day was impulsive, but within a downward balance. This has happened more than once before: turnover grows on an upward impulse, and then down again.

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On the daily chart, I see the 6450 or 6400 area as targets. And most likely, somewhere in between. Only the growth in turnover on VIX gives no peace.

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NQ futures pulled back more than all the others last week, while drawing the cleanest setup for preparing a further short.

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Let's immediately examine the daily chart, since on the weekly chart the situation with volume accumulation is absolutely identical, while on the daily chart one can show the cleanliness of the volume-accumulation model.

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In good downward dynamics, they should not work above the key volumes used to push into a short. In our case, the key pushing volumes are located in the 24085-24225 range.

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They pierced them, touching 24360-24455 from below (sales accumulation from the week before last). But the main liquidity passed precisely in the 24085-24225 range, while on the previous instruments the players left similar pushing liquidity below themselves, thereby breaking the cleanliness of the model.

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The targets of the first price decline are below 23400, and I expect volume accumulation somewhere in the wide range of 23280–23580.

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Most often, an interesting expansion of quotes occurs in the second ten-day period of the month (closer to the 10th–12th). This does not rule out strong moves at the beginning and end of the period, but it is always worth looking closely at the second ten-day period: good directional moves very often take place there.

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And the coming week will probably be a week of volume accumulation, but in a wide range, which will allow intraday trading with the corresponding risks. Although a continuation of volatile downward dynamics is also possible.

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True, a sharp accumulation of VIX volumes may indicate expectations of some decline, but we will see. On April 1, the maximum turnover occurred here — exactly when volumes began accumulating in quotes for a likely reversal.

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